The most recent BTC price analysis from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin has achieved gains that lay the groundwork for a resurgence of the upward trend in 2023. As October nears its end, Bitcoin is on track to finish 2023 much as it began, with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reporting gains of nearly 30%.

In their latest weekly newsletter titled "The Week On-Chain," released on October 24, Glassnode researchers argued that the past week has established a strong foundation for a BTC price uptrend. This claim is supported by Bitcoin's performance, which convincingly broke through various resistance levels, including key trendlines that had acted as support for several months.


BTC/USD annotated chart with moving average data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

These resistance levels encompassed several moving averages (MA), with the 200-week simple MA at $28,400 being a significant support line during the bear market phase. Glassnode noted that several long-term simple moving averages were clustered around $28,000, serving as market resistance throughout September and October. However, after a month of consistent market gains, the bulls demonstrated enough strength to break through the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages.

This breakthrough has significantly improved the profitability of various investor groups, including speculators and newcomers, whose cost basis is also around $28,000. The short-term holder (STH) cost basis has now crossed the $28,000 threshold, indicating an average profit of around 20%.

Glassnode researchers also provided a chart showing the short-term holder market value to realized value (STH-MVRV) ratio, which tracks the profitability of STH coins. They pointed out that, even before the October rally, there was no major capitulatory behavior, unlike instances in 2021-22 when STH-MVRV experienced significant corrections. The shallowness of the MVRV decline during the August sell-off suggests strong support, setting the stage for the recent rally.


Bitcoin STH-MVRV annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

In terms of ownership, the presence of short-term holder (STH) entities compared to long-term holders (LTHs) is at historically low levels. LTHs now hold over three-quarters of the available BTC supply, with a lower cost basis, closer to $20,000. While some believe Bitcoin may return to that price range, Glassnode remains optimistic about the year-end outlook.

A significant portion of supply and investors now find themselves above the average break-even price of around $28,000, setting the stage for a potential resurgence of the upward trend in 2023. The market has crossed key levels where investor psychology is likely to be anchored, making the following weeks important to monitor.


BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

According to on-chain monitoring data from CoinGlass, BTC/USD has gained 26% this month, which, by October standards, is still considered relatively modest.